data-based research to examine bilateral trade flows between the United States and a set of other countries within the framework of the gravity model

I have uploaded 8 files with everything you need to write this essay. The instructions file has full guidelines for writing the paper, it includes the grading rubrics. The essay_list_of_countries file consists of 30 countries you will be using for the analysis. The PowerPoint file briefly explains the concept of gravity is in Economics, I assume it might be helpful. Minimize the use of AI, the professor and I will check what percentage of the paper is written using AI. If you do use AI, please cite it, as the Instructions file tells you.

Data:

1)Visualizing Bilateral Trade
The World Bank provides an interface that visually represents the magnitude of trade flows between countries(this link opens in a new window/tab).  You can choose a country and a trade flow  (e.g., United States exports), and the interface will then draw a rectangle representing 100% of U.S. exports to the rest of the world.  The large rectangle will then be filled with smaller rectangles, each representing the share of U.S. exports to different countries – https://wits.worldbank.org/trade-visualization.aspx?lang=en

2) Country – Specific Variable Used in Gravity Equations

geo_cepii.xlsx provides information for 225 countries.  Variables include their geographic area, main cities, capital cities, languages spoken, whether the country is landlocked, and a variety of other variables.  Description of Column Headings geo_cepii is a column-by-column description of the variables included in the data set. 

A country’s main city is usually its capital city, but this is not always the case.  For example, Washington D.C. is the capital of the United States, but the population and economic size of New York City is much larger.  As such, we might consider New York to the the main city.  In this data set, there are 13 countries where the main city is not the same as the capital city. There are also a small number of cases where a country has two capital cities!

3) Bilateral Gravity Data

Bilateral Gravity Data.xlsx provides information for pairs of countries.  For example, the data include the distance (measured in kilometers) between Washington D.C. and the capital city of every other country in the world.  The first country in each pair is called the “origin” country, with the second being called the “destination” country.  Each country pair represents one row of the spreadsheet.  There are over 50,000 rows in the spreadsheet.   Data pertaining to the United States as the origin country begins with row 46,818.  Here is column-by-column description of the data. Description of Column Headings (Bilateral Gravity Data).xlsx is column-by-column description of the data.

4) U.S. Imports from and Exports to Partner Countries

The United States Census maintains a large database of variables pertaining to U.S. trade.  One spreadsheet (US Trade Data by Partner Country.xlsx) includes monthly and annual data on U.S. imports and exports with partner countries.  For example, data in the columns labeled EYR and IYR contain annual data on Exports and Imports, respectively.  Similarly, EJUL and IMAY contain data on U.S. exports in July and U.S. imports in May.  Partner countries are then found in rows of the table.  Trade with each partner country has many rows, each corresponding to a particular year.  For example, rows 2245 – 2281 contain data on U.S. trade with Norway for the years 1985 – 2021. Data is reported in millions of dollars.

5) U.S. Imports from and Exports to Partner Countries (All possible pairs)

The International Monetary Fund maintains an interactive website providing data  for each country’s exports to other countries(ttps://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61726508) (selected from a dropdown box) or imports from other countries(https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61726510) (also selected from a dropdown box).  The data is available starting in 2014 and continues through the most recently available year.  It can be displayed on a monthly (months are indicated by number, not name), quarterly, or yearly basis.  Choose the desired frequency from the Calendar dropdown menu. The value of exported goods are reported on an FOB (Free on Board) basis, which uses the price of a good delivered to and put ‘on board’ an overseas vessel. Imports are reported on a CIF (Cost, Insurance, Freight) basis, meaning that the value of imported goods also includes the cost of transporting them from the source to the destination as well as the cost of insurance during the period of transit.  Since CIF data is recorded by customs officers at ports of entry into a country, it is thought that this is more accurate than FOB data. In contrast, the FOB value of exports from the United States has to be estimated based on a guess as to the cost of transporting goods from the factory at which they are produced to the port from which they will be shipped overseas.

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