Exercise SINOMAX
The Pearl Harbor attack in 1941 can certainly be categorized as an intelligence failure – A failure of imagination and a failure of mechanics. The same can be said of the “second” Pearl Harbor (9/11) sixty years later. However, the intelligence efforts that were initiated in the immediate hours AFTER those attacks were rigorous and effective, and ultimately did help the U.S. and our coalition partners prepare for robust responses. There are some good lessons to be learned there.
The intended effects of the 9/11 attack were exponentially more complex than the Pearl Harbor attack – Something that we only realized later as we began to assemble the data gleaned from the Bin Laden raid and other sources. The architects of 9/11 would be quite pleased to know that they ultimately drove the United States many trillions of dollars into debt.
The most unfortunate part of this story is that our eventual “third” Pearl Harbor will likely have many MORE moving parts, with complex economic components and so-called friends who unexpectedly become adversaries.
This week’s multi-dimensional conflict exercise includes a sprinkling of many things – both methodological and geopolitical. The exercise is worth 20 percent of your grade for this course. So, you will want to take the time to be prolific and thoughtful in your posts.
Scenario:
15 August – The National Hurricane Center tracked Hurricane Judy across the Atlantic. The storm was expected to affect the islands of Hispaniola and/or Cuba, and then a few days later make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida or Louisiana. Relations between Havana and Washington have warmed during the last four years. The Cuban and American presidents agreed that U.S. disaster assistance will be requested and provided to Cuba following the storm, if necessary.
18 August – In the early morning hours, Hurricane Judy made landfall as a Category-5 storm in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. News networks reported eighty percent of the city’s buildings either heavily damaged or destroyed. Less than twenty hours later, the storm (still a Category-5) made landfall on the southwestern shore of Cuba and devastated Havana.
19 August – The White House had a mid-day phone conversation with the Haitian president. Port-au-Prince’s port facilities suffered unspecified damage. However, Haiti did ask for U.S. assistance, and the White House deployed a Joint Task Force and the USS Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (7 Navy and Coast Guard vessels, a Navy hospital ship, and two Military Sealift Command vessels). The Cuban president did not return the White House’s phone call.
Late in the evening of 19 August, U.S. intelligence sources in Havana sent a report to the White House: Two large Chinese “roll-on/roll-off” (RORO) car carrier ships arrived in the port of Havana and began offloading hundreds of Chinese military vehicles.
20 August – Early in the morning, U.S. intelligence sources in Panama sent a report to the White House: Four Chinese ROROs arrived in the ports of Manzanillo and Balboa and began offloading hundreds of Chinese military vehicles in that country as well. Additional Chinese vessels remain at anchor in the canal zone. U.S. military forces began observing observing “dozens” of large Chinese military aircraft landing at Panama’s Tocumen International Airport.
Later in the evening, Chinese state television announced a new SINO-LATAM trade deal with five Latin American countries, and an agreed Chinese investment of $4 trillion in infrastructure projects. China announced Panama’s agreement to outsource most Panama Canal operations and port operations to a company held by the China Ocean Shipping Group.
21 August – Nine countries (including Brazil, India, Taiwan and Saudi Arabia) that traditionally lend significantly to the U.S. Treasury announced investments in the SINO-LATAM trade deal. Those countries also said they would be significantly scaling back on future investments in U.S. debt.
The prime ministers of India and the UK were caught on a hot microphone discussing the “increasingly volatile American political climate” and “significantly heightened risk” of the U.S. debt situation. The UK prime minister was heard to say, “This is really the end of the American century. They’ll eventually have to cut their military budget by at least half. Probably more.” The Indian prime minister was heard to say, “That’s okay, they’ll be a better country when they are number three or four.”
The Cuban ambassador finally informed the White House that Havana would not be requesting disaster response assistance from the United States.
The President ordered the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to quickly return from Southwest Asia to the Eastern Pacific. He ordered the George Washington CSG to cancel its transit of the Suez Canal, return through the Mediterranean, and cross the Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea as quickly as possible.
22 August – Russia and Saudi Arabia announced they would significantly cut worldwide oil production.
23 August – The National Command Authority (President and Secretary of Defense) directed the Joint Task Force aboard the Kearsarge to prepare for combat operations and placed the following Army elements on standby for deployment: XVIII Airborne Corps; 82nd Airborne Division; 5th Mechanized Infantry Division; 7thInfantry Division; 75 Ranger Regiment. Elements of the 2nd Marine Division are preparing to deploy aboard the USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, and multiple Air Force Air Mobility squadrons are preparing C-17 and C-130 squadrons for possible combat operations.
Your Assignment: Thanks to your recent excellent work at the White House, you have been hired as an assistant to the National Security Advisor. You have been in your new job less than two weeks. Here is your assignment:
- Be sure to view the videos and listen to the lecture for this week. You will want to learn at least a little bit about intelligence satellites and unmanned intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft, and how they can be used for IMINT and SIGINT. They will be useful in this exercise.
- Spend some time reviewing and REFLECTING on what you have learned thus far in this course about the “mechanics” of intelligence, especially (a) priority intelligence requirements (PIRS) and collection management, and (b) structured analytical techniques such as ACH.
- The National Security Advisor has asked for a list of PIRs. She explains, “We need to get ODNI and all agencies of the intelligence community focused on what the heck is going on in Cuba and Panama. To help figure that out, I want to send a list of PIRs to the DNI. Please give me a list of at least five PIRs that you believe will help us figure out what exactly our adversary or adversaries are trying to accomplish here, and what is their GRAND STRATEGY.”
- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff joins the meeting. He says, “Whereas the National Security Advisor is looking for answers regarding the adversary’s “GRAND STRATEGY”, I am more interested China’s MILITARY OPERATIONAL strategy . . . In other words, what exactly are China’s military forces trying to accomplish right now on the ground in Cuba and Panama? So, please prepare for me a list of five OPERATIONALLY-oriented PIRs. Along with the PIRs, I would like you to tell me how we might task some of our satellites and our ISR aircraft to collect on those PIRs.”
Please answer the questions two questions above by providing 2 lists of PIRs and 4-6 supporting paragraphs. This exercise takes a little bit of thinking. So, be sure to read all instructions carefully. Focus on what your two “customers” are requesting.
Your primary response should be a minimum of 500 words and posted by Wednesday.
Attached below is unmanned aircrafts document needed.
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/importance-priority-intelligence-requirements-army-service-component-command-ascc-and
Use this website to reference pir if needed