Cognitive Bias in U.S. Intelligence Analysis: The Threat of Confirmation Bias, Anchoring Bias and Mirror Imaging

Topic:

Cognitive Bias in U.S. Intelligence Analysis: The Threat of Confirmation Bias, Anchoring Bias and Mirror Imaging 

Thesis:

Confirmation bias, anchoring bias, and mirror imaging  are the three most prevalent cognitive biases and perceptual errors in intelligence analysis that resulted in U.S. intelligence failure.

Your paper should be 10 pages in length, double spaced, times new roman 12 point font, 1 inch margins on all 4 sides. You should also be sure to have section headings, a title page, incorporate citations using The Chicago Manual of Style format Author-Date have a corresponding “References” page, and incorporate page numbers and all the other elements of a professional paper.

Outline 

1. Introduction – Thesis and introduction to cognitive bias in intelligence 

2. Confirmation Bias with case examples from U.S. intelligence events 

3. Anchoring Bias with case examples from U.S. intelligence events (Include Example – Cuban Missile Crisis)

4. Mirror Imaging with case examples from U.S. intelligence events 

5. Methods or recomendations to prevent cognitive bias in intelligence analysis (Include Example – ACH Method)  The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses(ACH) was developed by the  Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) specifically to mitigate against the cognitive bias of confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of

one’s existing beliefs. ACH is the principal method currently recommended by both the US and UK intelligence communities for mitigating cognitive biases in intelligence analysis (Jones 2017). 

1. Conclusion

Sources:

You should strive for 10 references (which shouldn’t be difficult given all the reading you’ve done in your program). Be sure that your selection of sources gives you balance, that they are credible and reliable and scholarly. 

Please use the following sources as references 

• Ephraim Kam and Thomas C. Schelling Surprise Attack : The Victim’s Perspective, with a New Preface https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/apus/detail.action?docID=3300671

• Richards J. Heuer, Jr. (1999) Psychology of Intelligence Analysis https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/books-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis-2/

• David T. Moore. Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis https://www.ialeia.org/docs/Critical_Thinking_and_Intelligence_Analysis_Copy.pdf

• Martha Whitesmith Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/pub/media/resources/9781474466363_Cognitive_Bias_in_Intelligence_Analysis_Introduction.pdf