My thesis will concentrate on
studying the impact of institutional quality on Vietnam’s exports and imports
in recent years. Vietnam has been deeply affected by the Vietnam War and
diplomatic closures, enduring long periods of American sanctions. However, in
recent decades, significant efforts have been made by national authorities to
improve their governance indicators. Trade policy has facilitated the opening
of import and export channels for Vietnam, creating numerous opportunities. I applying
the gravity model to imvestigate how the Vietnam’s institutional trade affects
its trade relations with the nations.
Working hypotheses:
1.
Hypothesis
#1: Institutional quality has a positive impact on Vietnam’s trade[MP1]
2.
Hypothesis
#2: The impact of institutional quality on Vietnam’s trade is mediated by its geographical proximity
to trading partners, [MP2] with
stronger effects observed for neighboring countries.
3.
Hypothesis
#3: Institutional quality positively influences trade diversification, leading
to a broader range of export and import partners for Vietnam.
Methodology:
I am using a dataset from 2012 to 2022, focusing on trade
flows in Vietnam. I will apply the Gravity model to analyze the trade
data between Vietnam and its trading partners, [MP3] aiming to
examine the impact of institutional quality on trade. The study seeks to
determine how various factors, such as GDP, distance, population, trade rate,
and institutional
quality[MP4] , influence
Vietnam’s export and import flows.
Outline:
1.
Introduction
2.
Literature review
a.
Gravity model theory
b.
Trade theory
3.
Methodology
a.
Data
b.
General description
4.
Result
5.
Conclusion
References
/ Bibliography:
1.
Abreo,
C., Bustillo, R., & Rodriguez, C. (2021). The role of institutional quality
in the international trade of a Latin American country: evidence from Colombian
export performance. Journal of Economic Structures, 10(1),
1-21.
2.
Álvarez,
I. C., Barbero, J., Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Zofío, J. L. (2018). Does
institutional quality matter for trade? Institutional conditions in a sectoral
trade framework. World Development, 103, 72-87.
3.
Oanh, T. H., & yen, N. (2020). The
institutional quality and trade: Evidence from Vietnam. International
Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 7(5), 123–130.
doi:10.14445/23939125/ijems-v7i5p119
4.
Méon,
P. G., & Sekkat, K. (2008). Institutional quality and trade: which
institutions? Which trade?. Economic Inquiry, 46(2),
227-240.
5.
Gani,
A., & Prasad, B. C. (2006). Institutional quality and trade in Pacific
Island countries.
[MP1]I would be more specific: it increases exports (or imports). In
other words, mention a variable which will be measured in the model.
[MP2]Let´s talk about it in person. That can be little bit tricky but why
not. Some cross products shall handle it.
[MP3]I think we would need to utilize bilateral dataset. E.g. the one on
gravity model from CEPII. So just for you to know how the model would look
like.
[MP4]Have you thought about institutional indicators? I discussed that couple
of weeks ago with my colleague (we are working on a paper using institutional
indicators) and we arrived to conclusion of using WGI (World Bank), Economic
Complexity Index and V-DEM. VDEM has also much larger time-series than WGI.