Hypothesis: The Arab Spring had a lasting positive impact on civil liberties and political stability in Tunisia but led to increased authoritarianism and reduced political stability in Egypt.
Independent and Dependent Variables
- Independent Variable: The occurrence and intensity of the Arab Spring protests in each country.
- Dependent Variables:
- Political Stability: Measured through political violence, government structure changes, and consistency of leadership.
- Civil Liberties: Measured by freedom of speech, press freedom, freedom of assembly, and human rights conditions.
Argument Outline
- Background and Context of the Arab Spring in Egypt and Tunisia
- Overview of socio-political conditions in Egypt and Tunisia before the Arab Spring.
- Nature and scale of the protests in each country.
- Impact on Political Stability
- Analysis of Tunisia’s transition to a more stable, democratic system post-Arab Spring, with successful constitutional reforms and relatively peaceful political transitions.
- Examination of Egypt’s shift towards authoritarian rule following the Arab Spring, including increased military influence and government crackdowns on dissent.
- Impact on Civil Liberties
- Comparison of civil liberties in Tunisia and Egypt, noting Tunisia’s improvements in press freedom and human rights, and contrasting with Egypt’s increased censorship and suppression of political opposition.
- Supporting Evidence and Data Analysis
- Quantitative data (e.g., Freedom House scores, Human Rights Watch reports, World Bank political stability index).
- Qualitative assessments from regional experts and eyewitness accounts.
- Conclusion
- Summary of findings supporting the hypothesis.
- Implications for future democratic movements in the Middle East.